"In 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry deepened supply-side structural reform, accelerated its transformation toward smart, green and integrated development, and realized steady growth and quality enhancement," said Chen Xuesen, Member of the Standing Committee of the Party Committee, Vice President and Spokesperson of the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), at a press conference on the 2025 economic performance of the non-ferrous metals industry held on the 3rd. He noted that in 2025, the total assets of non-ferrous metals industrial enterprises above designated size exceeded 6.6 trillion yuan, with operating revenue reaching 10.2 trillion yuan and total profits hitting 528.45 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 8.2%, 13.9% and 25.6% respectively.

Remarkable Achievements in High-Quality Development of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry in 2025

In 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry continued to deepen supply-side structural reform, fully promoted smart, green and integrated transformation, and achieved steady growth and quality improvement amid a complex market environment.

(I) Key Indicators Maintain Sound Momentum, Development Foundation Consolidated

First, the output of major products hit a new high, maintaining a leading global share. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the industrial added value of non-ferrous metals enterprises rose by 6.9% in 2025, 1.0 percentage point higher than the growth rate of the national industrial added value above designated size. The output of ten major non-ferrous metals broke the 80-million-tonne mark for the first time, reaching 81.75 million tonnes, up 3.9% year-on-year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.0% during the 14th Five-Year Plan periodThe State Council of the People's Republic of China.

In terms of specific products, refined copper output stood at 14.72 million tonnes, up 10.4% year-on-year, accounting for 47% of the global total, with an average annual growth rate of 8.0% during the 14th Five-Year Plan periodThe State Council of the People's Republic of China; primary aluminum output reached 45.016 million tonnes, up 2.4% year-on-year, accounting for 60% of the global total, with an average annual growth rate of 3.9%The State Council of the People's Republic of China. The metal content of six types of mineral concentrates was 6.19 million tonnes, up 3.4% year-on-year; alumina output reached 92.446 million tonnes, up 8.0% year-on-year; copper products output was 24.814 million tonnes, up 4.7% year-on-year, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3%The State Council of the People's Republic of China; aluminum products output stood at 67.504 million tonnes, down 0.2% year-on-year, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6%The State Council of the People's Republic of China.

Based on preliminary statistics from CNMIA’s branch associations, in the new energy metals sector, industrial silicon output reached 4.514 million tonnes, down 8.1% year-on-year; electrolytic nickel output was 456,000 tonnes, up 25.4% year-on-year; refined cobalt output stood at 174,000 tonnes, down 15.4% year-on-year; lithium carbonate output reached 944,000 tonnes, up 34.7% year-on-year.

Second, the structure of fixed-asset investment optimized, with a sharp increase in investment in the mining sector. In 2025, fixed-asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry rose by 4.9% year-on-year, 2.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of national industrial investment. Specifically, fixed-asset investment in non-ferrous metals mining and dressing surged by 41.0% year-on-year, while that in non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing fell by 4.2%.

The vitality of private investment was fully unleashed, with private fixed-asset investment in China’s non-ferrous metals industry rising by 2.6% year-on-year. Of this total, private investment in non-ferrous metals mining and dressing grew by 28.7% year-on-year, while that in smelting and rolling processing dropped by 3.9%.

Third, foreign trade hit a new high with strong export growth momentum. The non-ferrous metals industry actively implemented a series of national policies, taking multiple measures to help enterprises explore international markets and effectively cope with risks and challenges such as China-US economic and trade frictions. In 2025, the total import and export volume of China’s non-ferrous metals reached a new level of 412.24 billion US dollars, up 12.4% year-on-year, with an average annual growth rate of 24.2% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Of this total, imports amounted to 326.31 billion US dollars, up 9.6% year-on-year, with an average annual growth rate of 23.5%; exports reached 85.93 billion US dollars, up 24.2% year-on-year, with an average annual growth rate of 27.4%.

Among major import and export products, in 2025, copper ore and concentrates imports reached 30.31 million tonnes, up 7.9% year-on-year; bauxite imports hit a record high of 200 million tonnes, up 26.4% year-on-year; unwrought copper and copper products imports stood at 5.321 million tonnes, down 6.4% year-on-year. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 6.134 million tonnes, down 8.0% year-on-year; rare earth exports hit 63,000 tonnes, up 12.9% year-on-year.

Fourth, market prices diverged significantly, with traditional industrial metals and precious metals showing strong momentum. In the 2025 domestic spot market, the annual average price of copper hit a record high of 81,000 yuan per tonne, up 8.0% year-on-year; the development direction of aluminum became clearer. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued policies including the Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Non-Ferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026), the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025-2027), and the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027). Through various measures such as technological innovation, structural optimization, layout upgrading and digital transformation, these policies drive the industry to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, continuously foster new growth drivers and competitive advantages, and chart the course for the sound development of the industry in the next two years. Meanwhile, the industry’s supply-side structural reform advanced in depth. Based on systematically summarizing the successful experience of existing electrolytic aluminum production, governance was carried out in an orderly manner for products with prominent "involutionary" disorderly competition such as copper smelting and alumina, guiding the industry toward rational and high-quality development.

Second, resource security strategies worked in synergy, significantly enhancing supply resilience. Focusing on improving the security guarantee capacity of strategic resources, a dual-wheel drive of "control" and "recycling" was implemented. On the one hand, export control policies for strategic metals such as rare earths were precisely implemented, effectively safeguarding national resource security, preventing strategic resources from flowing into fields threatening national security, and significantly enhancing China’s voice and influence in global resource governance. On the other hand, the Announcement on Regulating the Import Management of Recycled Black Powder Raw Materials for Lithium-Ion Batteries and Recycled Steel Raw Materials was issued, marking the first legal import qualification for recycled black powder for lithium batteries, opening a new path for resource recycling and further enhancing the diversified guarantee capacity of resource supply.

Third, forward-looking layout was made for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with solid progress in planning formulation. Closely integrating with the industry’s reality, based on the current situation and focusing on the long term, CNMIA actively cooperated with the government in formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Non-Ferrous Metals Industry. Centering on building a modern non-ferrous metals industrial system, the plan focuses on resource security and technological innovation, clarifying the development ideas, key tasks and implementation paths for the industry in the next five years.

I. Outlook for 2026

Internationally, the global economy is expected to witness moderate growth in 2026. The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast accordingly. The rise of the artificial intelligence industry is becoming a new investment engine, global inflationary pressure is easing, and a new round of fiscal expansion policies will also inject impetus. However, rising trade protectionism against the backdrop of "major power rivalry" has made traditional trade frictions the new normal, with new types of trade barriers continuing to increase. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts and the trend of "resource nationalism" have caused frequent supply disruptions for key resources such as copper and lithium, exacerbating the vulnerability of the supply chain system and non-market risks faced by enterprises.

Domestically, the industry has a solid foundation for growth. On the one hand, a series of policies centered on the industry’s stable growth work plan and the high-quality development implementation plans for the copper and aluminum industries are forming systematic synergy, providing clear top-level design and path guidance for the industry from resource security to green transformation. On the other hand, the endogenous growth momentum structure is undergoing profound changes. The continuous expansion of the "new three types" of exports and the rise of future industries such as artificial intelligence together constitute the core engine driving the industry to climb up the high-end of the value chain, indicating higher-quality structural growth.

Overall, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026. The first quarter will continue the sound momentum of the end of last year and maintain stable operation, achieving a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. In the absence of "black swan" events, the preliminary projections for the main indicators of the non-ferrous metals industry for the full year of 2026 are as follows:

First, production will continue to operate steadily, with the industrial added value of the non-ferrous metals industry expected to grow by about 5% year-on-year. Based on the production characteristics and capacity construction of the non-ferrous metals industry, the output of ten common non-ferrous metals is expected to grow by about 2% year-on-year in 2026. Among them, refined copper output will grow by about 5%, while primary aluminum output will remain largely flat. The industrial added value is expected to stay at around 5%.

Second, the industry’s operating revenue and realized profits will maintain growth. In terms of prices, the prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are expected to stabilize and rebound in 2026, while the prices of major common non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum will fluctuate at high levels. The industry’s operating revenue is expected to grow by 5%, with a slight increase in realized profits.

Third, investment will maintain growth, while foreign trade will face challenges. Demand for nickel, cobalt, lithium and high-tech metal materials in downstream sectors such as photovoltaic, wind power and lithium batteries continues to rise. Coupled with the effective implementation of national consumption-boosting policies, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to remain positive. Affected by volatile international geopolitical situations, geopolitical conflicts and China-US trade relations, the industry will face greater pressure on product imports and exports, and the growth rate of non-ferrous metals exports may slow down.

Through years of persistent efforts, China’s non-ferrous metals industry has continuously enhanced its position and competitiveness in the global industrial division with its outstanding scale advantages and complete system advantages. Next, facing the adjustment and reshaping of the global industrial structure and layout triggered by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will consolidate the leading position of the non-ferrous metals industry’s advantageous sectors, enhance the independent and controllable level of the industrial and supply chains, accelerate the transformation and upgrading toward high-end, smart and green development, and strive to achieve a sound start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Source: Compiled from public data