In 2025, the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index posted a stunning annual surge of 94.73%, ranking first among the 31 Shenwan first-tier industry indices.Entering 2026, can this strong momentum be sustained?And what profound changes have taken place in the core driving logic behind it?

Our analysis indicates that the industry’s investment theme is shifting from mere cyclical fluctuations to structural opportunities driven by "strategic value revaluation" and "rigorous growth in emerging demand." A chain reaction spanning from AI data centers to deep mining operations is underway. Non-ferrous metals are no longer simple cyclical commodities but are evolving into "new infrastructure" underpinning the intelligent era. Furthermore, as a cornerstone of the AI revolution, the power sector presents equally substantial prospects and opportunities.

Four Pillars Supporting the Non-Ferrous Metals Rally

The stellar performance of non-ferrous metals in 2025 was underpinned by four key drivers:

First, industrial metals facing long-term supply bottlenecks.

Base metals such as copper, aluminum, tin, lead, and zinc are foundational to industrialization, with their strategic significance amplified by supply rigidity. Copper, dubbed the "metal for carbon neutrality," suffers from a scarcity of large-scale global projects and declining ore grades. Concurrently, demand from renewable energy generation, electric vehicles (EVs), charging infrastructure, and data centers is surging, creating a persistent supply-demand imbalance.

According to the International Copper Study Group, China holds merely 3% of global copper reserves and accounts for only 10% of production, making domestic exploration a central theme for China’s copper industry. For aluminum, domestic smelting capacity is approaching the policy cap of 45.53 million tonnes, severely limiting supply flexibility, while demand expands in automotive lightweighting, solar panel frames, and "aluminum-for-copper" substitution in air conditioners.

Second, strategic minor metals with highly concentrated supply.

China often dominates the reserves of these resources, which are heavily influenced by policy and are critical for safeguarding industrial chain security and securing international pricing power. Rare earths, the "vitamins of industry," epitomize this. Strict domestic controls on mining and separation quotas are optimizing the supply-demand structure at the source. Robust downstream growth in EVs, industrial motors, and robotics—particularly demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets—creates a durable growth pole.

Metals like tungsten, antimony, and molybdenum face similar dynamics of domestic resource regulation and concentrated overseas supply. Their demand is transitioning from traditional sectors (e.g., steel) to new growth areas such as photovoltaic glass (antimony) and high-end alloys/aerospace (tungsten, molybdenum).

Third, new energy metals with sustained demand growth.

Their prosperity is directly tied to the global green energy transition. Lithium, after a cyclical correction, is moving from "surplus" to "balance." High-cost capacity exits, coupled with new demand drivers—especially from energy storage and heavy-duty EVs in China—warrant close attention to lithium price levels. Cobalt supply is highly concentrated in the DRC, prone to geopolitical and export policy disruptions. Supported by demand for high-end ternary batteries and strategic stockpiling, cobalt price trends are also a key focus.

Fourth, advanced metal materials for future emerging applications.

This critical link converts upstream resource value into high-tech end products, directly benefiting from technological progress. High-grade copper alloys are foundational for high-speed connectors and robotic joints in AI hardware and high-end manufacturing. High-performance permanent magnet materials are core components for EV drive motors, industrial servos, and future humanoid robots.

Divergent Highlights in 2026:

Precious Metals, Industrial Metals & Energy Metals

Sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals exhibit distinct investment highlights in 2026:

Precious Metals

The 2025 gold rally was fundamentally driven by its resurgent monetary attribute and strategic reserve logic. De-dollarization trends—fueled by Sino-U.S. trade frictions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and expanding U.S. fiscal deficits—sustained central bank gold buying. From a real interest rate perspective, the first half of 2025 was driven by inflation expectations (Trump’s "reciprocal tariffs"), while the second half was led by declining nominal rates (Fed rate cuts).

Looking to 2026, the Fed Chair transition and U.S. midterm election pressures point to expanded fiscal spending and sticky inflation expectations. Investors should focus on gold’s performance and its spillover effects on other non-ferrous metals.

Industrial Metals

Wind data shows copper-led industrial metals surged in 2025 (copper +30%, copper stocks +100%+), primarily driven by financial attributes (rate cuts). On the supply side, multiple major global copper mines cut output or halted operations due to accidents, leaving supply growth near zero. Fears of U.S. copper tariffs redirected non-U.S. supplies to America, tightening markets elsewhere.

For H1 2026, financial-driven copper upside may persist—watch Fed cuts. By mid-2026, focus shifts to U.S. tariff implementation. A copper rally would likely lift supply-constrained metals like tin and aluminum.

Energy Metals

2025 marked an inflection point from surplus to tight balance. AI-driven data centers and improving storage economics boosted global energy storage installations, pushing lithium carbonate toward tightness or temporary shortages.

Cobalt’s DRC export quotas—controlling ~70% of global supply—will quickly tighten markets, supporting higher 2026 price floors. Indonesia’s planned nickel supply controls also warrant monitoring for price impacts.

AI’s Ultimate Limit is Power

Global Power Demand Shifts to New Energy

Non-ferrous metals and power are deeply interdependent: metals are core to transmission, equipment, and storage, while power growth directly fuels metal consumption—with AI as the primary demand catalyst.

AI, especially large-scale training and inference, is an extraordinarily energy-intensive computational process. The IEA estimates annual investments in AI-related power generation, storage, grids, and data centers could reach $3 trillion by 2030. AI facilities demand not just massive power but exceptional stability and green credentials, straining traditional grids.

Rapidly deployable, cost-competitive solar/wind plus storage become imperative—not just for sustainability, but as a physical necessity for AI’s growth.

Yet new energy’s expansion faces resource constraints, with manufacturing rooted in commodities. The IEA’s 2025 Global Critical Minerals Outlook confirms clean energy technologies drive surging critical mineral demand: each MW of onshore wind/solar requires 3–5 tonnes of copper. AI data centers use over twice as much copper as traditional facilities, exacerbating long-term gaps.

By 2035, the IEA projects a 30% primary copper deficit and ~40% lithium shortfall. These minerals—plus nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths—are irreplaceable for solar, wind, batteries, and grid upgrades. Solar’s boom consumes massive silver: 8–10 tonnes per GW of installed capacity, with 2025 global additions projected at 655+ GW.

Thus, "AI’s end is new energy; new energy’s end is commodities" traces a value chain from virtual intelligence to physical assets: AI drives compute, compute consumes power, power transition needs renewables, and renewables demand critical minerals.

For investors, analyzing the AI revolution requires looking beyond algorithms to its energy foundations (storage, smart grids, renewables) and upstream resource barriers (copper, lithium). Any bottleneck here creates massive revaluation opportunities.

In summary, focus on commodities with supply constraints and demand catalysts. Industrial metals (copper, aluminum) offer rigid demand; lithium, cobalt, tungsten, and tin show emerging strength; and advanced metal materials promise long-term growth. The power sector—AI’s cornerstone—offers comparable opportunities.

Data source: Compiled from public information